It sounds strange to write about bitcoin falling to $10,000 because usually, headlines are about Bitcoin rising above $ 10,000. However, when the market is as bullish as it is now, the fall to $10,000 looks much worse than it actually is compared to the increase in it. Even so, how bad is it?
The sense of selling has been rising over the past few weeks, even when the price is above $11,000 and briefly above $12,000, but last week it fell to $10,200 and no jump has been seen since the need to sell became desperation. The amount of Bitcoin held in exchanges has reached its highest point in two months, according to data from Chainalysis Market Intel.
With the price down, there is a need to sell Bitcoin. Because of the decline, more holders are putting their BTC on the exchanges, possibly selling orders triggered just below Bitcoin’s trading price, quickly selling their bags if a large price drop occurs and lowering the price to $10,000 or below.
On the other hand, there was also a sharp and severe decline in BTC inflows to the exchanges. Listings on the exchanges fell 40 percent from $1.25 billion to about $750 million from Bitcoin. This means that sales sentiment in the market has passed for now.
At this point, it would be wise to look at the reasons that should be kept in light of historical data. One of the key indicators of looking at Bitcoin’s price trajectory is the 200-day moving average, given its recent fluctuation, according to a report by Econometrics.
By breaking your investment strategy based on this single factor and, accordingly, Bitcoin’s price, you can take a long time when the current price rises above 200 DMA, or shorten it when the current price falls below 200 DMA. If this strategy is followed since June 2013, 15 long positions will result in 11 profit positions, rising from 100 percent to 4,000 percent. Losses in these long positions can be up to 20 percent.
Another report from econometrics looked at Bitcoin’s possible growth trajectory based on its current halving, in light of the past few halves. December April 2020 this trend will increase bitcoin to $41,000 and April 2020 to $100,000. Again, this is entirely based on how the market moved after the halves in 2012 and 2016, and the current market has changed since then, but it would be wise to look at these figures before making a quick sale.
Yes, there is a need to sell, but when you look at foreign exchange flows, this need has been overcome. While it is not clear why the need for sales has fallen so quickly, it can be assumed that those who are not in the mood to sell are looking at both, especially given how far the price has come in the last few months. It’s a 200-day trend, or a halving growth trajectory, or maybe some other investment strategy, and we’ve decided this isn’t the right time to sell.
